{
  "title": "Gold Trading Costs: A Position-Size Sensitivity Study",
  "published": "2026-10-02",
  "version": 1,
  "studyType": "Hypothetical execution-cost sensitivity; not a historical backtest",
  "marketDataUsed": false,
  "brokerPricingUsed": false,
  "scenarioInputOrigin": "Arbitrary educational assumptions selected by InsomniCapital; not Axi or any provider pricing.",
  "priceBasis": "Idealised mid-price movements before all modelled costs. Spread and slippage are aggregate round-trip USD per troy ounce; commission covers the complete trade once.",
  "assumptions": {
    "cashReferenceUsd": 100,
    "rewardMultiple": 2,
    "roundTripSpreadUsdPerTroyOunce": 0.3,
    "roundTripAdverseSlippageUsdPerTroyOunce": 0.2,
    "roundTripCommissionUsd": 2,
    "stopDistancesUsdPerTroyOunce": [
      2,
      5,
      10
    ],
    "sensitivityVariableCostsUsdPerTroyOunce": [
      0,
      0.25,
      0.5,
      1
    ]
  },
  "formulas": {
    "grossRiskQuantity": "100 / stopDistance",
    "allInBudgetQuantity": "(100 - 2) / (stopDistance + variableCostPerOunce)",
    "roundTripCost": "quantity * variableCostPerOunce + 2",
    "grossStopLoss": "quantity * stopDistance",
    "grossTargetGain": "2 * quantity * stopDistance",
    "netLossMagnitude": "grossStopLoss + roundTripCost",
    "netWin": "grossTargetGain - roundTripCost",
    "breakEvenWinFraction": "netLossMagnitude / (netLossMagnitude + netWin)",
    "zeroExpectationCheck": "p * netWin - (1 - p) * netLossMagnitude = 0"
  },
  "rounding": "No intermediate rounding. HTML percentage displays use at most six decimals; chart labels use three. Contract increments are not assumed.",
  "excluded": [
    "Market prices and observed success rates",
    "Broker-specific fees or contract increments",
    "Variable and asymmetric execution",
    "Financing, conversion and tax",
    "Margin eligibility and partial outcomes"
  ],
  "costFreeReferenceWinFraction": 0.3333333333333333,
  "mainRows": [
    {
      "sizing": "gross-stop-risk",
      "cashReferenceUsd": 100,
      "stopDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 2,
      "targetDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 4,
      "quantityTroyOunces": 50,
      "variableRoundTripCostUsdPerTroyOunce": 0.5,
      "roundTripCommissionUsd": 2,
      "grossStopLossUsd": 100,
      "grossTargetGainUsd": 200,
      "roundTripCostUsd": 27,
      "netLossUsd": 127,
      "netWinUsd": 173,
      "breakEvenWinFraction": 0.42333333333333334
    },
    {
      "sizing": "gross-stop-risk",
      "cashReferenceUsd": 100,
      "stopDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 5,
      "targetDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 10,
      "quantityTroyOunces": 20,
      "variableRoundTripCostUsdPerTroyOunce": 0.5,
      "roundTripCommissionUsd": 2,
      "grossStopLossUsd": 100,
      "grossTargetGainUsd": 200,
      "roundTripCostUsd": 12,
      "netLossUsd": 112,
      "netWinUsd": 188,
      "breakEvenWinFraction": 0.37333333333333335
    },
    {
      "sizing": "gross-stop-risk",
      "cashReferenceUsd": 100,
      "stopDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 10,
      "targetDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 20,
      "quantityTroyOunces": 10,
      "variableRoundTripCostUsdPerTroyOunce": 0.5,
      "roundTripCommissionUsd": 2,
      "grossStopLossUsd": 100,
      "grossTargetGainUsd": 200,
      "roundTripCostUsd": 7,
      "netLossUsd": 107,
      "netWinUsd": 193,
      "breakEvenWinFraction": 0.3566666666666667
    }
  ],
  "sensitivityRows": [
    {
      "sizing": "gross-stop-risk",
      "cashReferenceUsd": 100,
      "stopDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 2,
      "targetDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 4,
      "quantityTroyOunces": 50,
      "variableRoundTripCostUsdPerTroyOunce": 0,
      "roundTripCommissionUsd": 2,
      "grossStopLossUsd": 100,
      "grossTargetGainUsd": 200,
      "roundTripCostUsd": 2,
      "netLossUsd": 102,
      "netWinUsd": 198,
      "breakEvenWinFraction": 0.34
    },
    {
      "sizing": "gross-stop-risk",
      "cashReferenceUsd": 100,
      "stopDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 2,
      "targetDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 4,
      "quantityTroyOunces": 50,
      "variableRoundTripCostUsdPerTroyOunce": 0.25,
      "roundTripCommissionUsd": 2,
      "grossStopLossUsd": 100,
      "grossTargetGainUsd": 200,
      "roundTripCostUsd": 14.5,
      "netLossUsd": 114.5,
      "netWinUsd": 185.5,
      "breakEvenWinFraction": 0.38166666666666665
    },
    {
      "sizing": "gross-stop-risk",
      "cashReferenceUsd": 100,
      "stopDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 2,
      "targetDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 4,
      "quantityTroyOunces": 50,
      "variableRoundTripCostUsdPerTroyOunce": 0.5,
      "roundTripCommissionUsd": 2,
      "grossStopLossUsd": 100,
      "grossTargetGainUsd": 200,
      "roundTripCostUsd": 27,
      "netLossUsd": 127,
      "netWinUsd": 173,
      "breakEvenWinFraction": 0.42333333333333334
    },
    {
      "sizing": "gross-stop-risk",
      "cashReferenceUsd": 100,
      "stopDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 2,
      "targetDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 4,
      "quantityTroyOunces": 50,
      "variableRoundTripCostUsdPerTroyOunce": 1,
      "roundTripCommissionUsd": 2,
      "grossStopLossUsd": 100,
      "grossTargetGainUsd": 200,
      "roundTripCostUsd": 52,
      "netLossUsd": 152,
      "netWinUsd": 148,
      "breakEvenWinFraction": 0.5066666666666667
    },
    {
      "sizing": "gross-stop-risk",
      "cashReferenceUsd": 100,
      "stopDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 5,
      "targetDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 10,
      "quantityTroyOunces": 20,
      "variableRoundTripCostUsdPerTroyOunce": 0,
      "roundTripCommissionUsd": 2,
      "grossStopLossUsd": 100,
      "grossTargetGainUsd": 200,
      "roundTripCostUsd": 2,
      "netLossUsd": 102,
      "netWinUsd": 198,
      "breakEvenWinFraction": 0.34
    },
    {
      "sizing": "gross-stop-risk",
      "cashReferenceUsd": 100,
      "stopDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 5,
      "targetDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 10,
      "quantityTroyOunces": 20,
      "variableRoundTripCostUsdPerTroyOunce": 0.25,
      "roundTripCommissionUsd": 2,
      "grossStopLossUsd": 100,
      "grossTargetGainUsd": 200,
      "roundTripCostUsd": 7,
      "netLossUsd": 107,
      "netWinUsd": 193,
      "breakEvenWinFraction": 0.3566666666666667
    },
    {
      "sizing": "gross-stop-risk",
      "cashReferenceUsd": 100,
      "stopDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 5,
      "targetDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 10,
      "quantityTroyOunces": 20,
      "variableRoundTripCostUsdPerTroyOunce": 0.5,
      "roundTripCommissionUsd": 2,
      "grossStopLossUsd": 100,
      "grossTargetGainUsd": 200,
      "roundTripCostUsd": 12,
      "netLossUsd": 112,
      "netWinUsd": 188,
      "breakEvenWinFraction": 0.37333333333333335
    },
    {
      "sizing": "gross-stop-risk",
      "cashReferenceUsd": 100,
      "stopDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 5,
      "targetDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 10,
      "quantityTroyOunces": 20,
      "variableRoundTripCostUsdPerTroyOunce": 1,
      "roundTripCommissionUsd": 2,
      "grossStopLossUsd": 100,
      "grossTargetGainUsd": 200,
      "roundTripCostUsd": 22,
      "netLossUsd": 122,
      "netWinUsd": 178,
      "breakEvenWinFraction": 0.4066666666666667
    },
    {
      "sizing": "gross-stop-risk",
      "cashReferenceUsd": 100,
      "stopDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 10,
      "targetDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 20,
      "quantityTroyOunces": 10,
      "variableRoundTripCostUsdPerTroyOunce": 0,
      "roundTripCommissionUsd": 2,
      "grossStopLossUsd": 100,
      "grossTargetGainUsd": 200,
      "roundTripCostUsd": 2,
      "netLossUsd": 102,
      "netWinUsd": 198,
      "breakEvenWinFraction": 0.34
    },
    {
      "sizing": "gross-stop-risk",
      "cashReferenceUsd": 100,
      "stopDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 10,
      "targetDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 20,
      "quantityTroyOunces": 10,
      "variableRoundTripCostUsdPerTroyOunce": 0.25,
      "roundTripCommissionUsd": 2,
      "grossStopLossUsd": 100,
      "grossTargetGainUsd": 200,
      "roundTripCostUsd": 4.5,
      "netLossUsd": 104.5,
      "netWinUsd": 195.5,
      "breakEvenWinFraction": 0.34833333333333333
    },
    {
      "sizing": "gross-stop-risk",
      "cashReferenceUsd": 100,
      "stopDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 10,
      "targetDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 20,
      "quantityTroyOunces": 10,
      "variableRoundTripCostUsdPerTroyOunce": 0.5,
      "roundTripCommissionUsd": 2,
      "grossStopLossUsd": 100,
      "grossTargetGainUsd": 200,
      "roundTripCostUsd": 7,
      "netLossUsd": 107,
      "netWinUsd": 193,
      "breakEvenWinFraction": 0.3566666666666667
    },
    {
      "sizing": "gross-stop-risk",
      "cashReferenceUsd": 100,
      "stopDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 10,
      "targetDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 20,
      "quantityTroyOunces": 10,
      "variableRoundTripCostUsdPerTroyOunce": 1,
      "roundTripCommissionUsd": 2,
      "grossStopLossUsd": 100,
      "grossTargetGainUsd": 200,
      "roundTripCostUsd": 12,
      "netLossUsd": 112,
      "netWinUsd": 188,
      "breakEvenWinFraction": 0.37333333333333335
    }
  ],
  "allInBudgetRows": [
    {
      "sizing": "all-in-budget",
      "cashReferenceUsd": 100,
      "stopDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 2,
      "targetDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 4,
      "quantityTroyOunces": 39.2,
      "variableRoundTripCostUsdPerTroyOunce": 0.5,
      "roundTripCommissionUsd": 2,
      "grossStopLossUsd": 78.4,
      "grossTargetGainUsd": 156.8,
      "roundTripCostUsd": 21.6,
      "netLossUsd": 100,
      "netWinUsd": 135.20000000000002,
      "breakEvenWinFraction": 0.42517006802721086
    },
    {
      "sizing": "all-in-budget",
      "cashReferenceUsd": 100,
      "stopDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 5,
      "targetDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 10,
      "quantityTroyOunces": 17.818181818181817,
      "variableRoundTripCostUsdPerTroyOunce": 0.5,
      "roundTripCommissionUsd": 2,
      "grossStopLossUsd": 89.09090909090908,
      "grossTargetGainUsd": 178.18181818181816,
      "roundTripCostUsd": 10.909090909090908,
      "netLossUsd": 99.99999999999999,
      "netWinUsd": 167.27272727272725,
      "breakEvenWinFraction": 0.37414965986394555
    },
    {
      "sizing": "all-in-budget",
      "cashReferenceUsd": 100,
      "stopDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 10,
      "targetDistanceUsdPerTroyOunce": 20,
      "quantityTroyOunces": 9.333333333333334,
      "variableRoundTripCostUsdPerTroyOunce": 0.5,
      "roundTripCommissionUsd": 2,
      "grossStopLossUsd": 93.33333333333334,
      "grossTargetGainUsd": 186.66666666666669,
      "roundTripCostUsd": 6.666666666666667,
      "netLossUsd": 100.00000000000001,
      "netWinUsd": 180.00000000000003,
      "breakEvenWinFraction": 0.3571428571428571
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold-futures.html",
      "label": "CME Group: Gold and Micro Gold contract units"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://legal.oanda.com/?code=execution_policy_oel&language=en",
      "label": "OANDA Europe: order execution policy, costs and slippage"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.oanda.com/uk-en/trading/our-charges/",
      "label": "OANDA UK: financing and currency-conversion charges"
    }
  ],
  "attribution": "Original model, calculations and chart: InsomniCapital. Sources support concepts, not the arbitrary scenario fees."
}