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Risk/Reward & Break-Even Win Rate Calculator
Compare gross and net cash outcomes, allow for costs and find the break-even win rate under your assumptions.
Free to use · No sign-up · Calculations stay in your browser
Enter your assumptions
The calculation, explained
Formula and worked example
Break-even win rate = net loss ÷ (net gain + net loss) × 100
USD 100 of gross price loss and USD 200 of gross price gain, with USD 10 additional costs on either outcome, give USD 110 lost versus USD 190 gained. Break-even is 36.6667%; at an assumed 40% win rate, the scenario averages USD 10 per trade.
Common questions
Does a positive expectancy prove an edge?
No. It is the arithmetic of your assumed win rate and fixed payoffs. Real win rates, average outcomes and costs require evidence and can change.
What if costs exceed the target gain?
Even the winning outcome then loses money. The tool reports that no possible win rate can break even, rather than presenting a rate above 100% as achievable.
Sources and limitations
Prepared by InsomniCapital. Our editorial approach. Checked 2 October 2026.
Educational information only. Actual costs, execution, rates and product specifications can differ. Leveraged trading can result in substantial losses. Read the risk disclosure.