Each original scenario starts with hypothetical completed hourly closing prices. Later observations are hidden until you answer. Select a reproducible interpretation of the stated study, not a prediction of the winning trade. Before submitting, write the relevant level, condition and invalidation in your own notes. Scores assess the reasoning rule; these examples provide no strategy-performance evidence.
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0 of 4 exercises reviewed on this visit
Exercise 1 · Hypothetical example
Which protocol makes this close-based breakout study reproducible before later observations are revealed?
The displayed eight hourly closes are 96, 98, 100, 99, 97, 99, 100 and 99 arbitrary price units. Fix 100 as the reference level now. The study asks whether the first of the next four closes strictly above that level is followed by a return to or below the level within the following two closes. It measures a closing-price event, not executable entries or trade P/L.
Hypothetical example. Hypothetical hourly closes in price units. Review data contains four subsequent observations; no intrabar extremes or executable quotes are provided.Read the 8 displayed observations as a table
Original hypothetical data. Price units follow the scenario. Observation numbers show sequence, not elapsed time. Only the initial observations are included.
Hypothetical close observations: initial data
Observation
Close
1
96
2
98
3
100
4
99
5
97
6
99
7
100
8
99
Worked explanation
After reveal, the first subsequent close is 100.5, so the strict closing-price trigger occurs then. The next two closes are 101.2 and 99.4. The second is at or below the fixed 100 level, so this example meets the study’s failed-break definition within the declared window. The final 98.8 does not need to be used to invent a better trigger. No trade return can be calculated without an execution and exit model.
The later observations
Hypothetical example. Hypothetical hourly closes in price units. Review data contains four subsequent observations; no intrabar extremes or executable quotes are provided.Read the 12 displayed observations as a table
Original hypothetical data. Price units follow the scenario. Observation numbers show sequence, not elapsed time. Initial and later observations are identified separately.
Hypothetical close observations: initial and later data
Observation
Stage
Close
1
Initial
96
2
Initial
98
3
Initial
100
4
Initial
99
5
Initial
97
6
Initial
99
7
Initial
100
8
Initial
99
9
Later
100.5
10
Later
101.2
11
Later
99.4
12
Later
98.8
This fixed example illustrates a condition. A later outcome does not make the earlier information predictive.
Exercise 2 · Hypothetical example
Which note preserves the stated range hypothesis without treating the boundary as a guaranteed barrier?
Eight hypothetical hourly closes are 52, 50, 51, 54, 53, 50.5, 52 and 54. The existing study range is 50 through 54 inclusive. Its written invalidation condition is the first later completed close strictly outside that interval. Price is currently at the upper boundary. There is no entry instruction, target or established probability of reversal.
Hypothetical example. Hypothetical hourly closes; the fixed 50–54 range is a study definition, not a guaranteed price boundary.Read the 8 displayed observations as a table
Original hypothetical data. Price units follow the scenario. Observation numbers show sequence, not elapsed time. Only the initial observations are included.
Hypothetical close observations: initial data
Observation
Close
1
52
2
50
3
51
4
54
5
53
6
50.5
7
52
8
54
Worked explanation
The first revealed close is 54.6, strictly above 54, so the original range hypothesis is invalidated immediately under its rule. The next close is 55.1. Later returns to 53.8 and 53.2 do not erase the earlier invalidation; a new range study would be a separately recorded hypothesis. None of these closing observations establishes a short entry or the result of a trade.
The later observations
Hypothetical example. Hypothetical hourly closes; the fixed 50–54 range is a study definition, not a guaranteed price boundary.Read the 12 displayed observations as a table
Original hypothetical data. Price units follow the scenario. Observation numbers show sequence, not elapsed time. Initial and later observations are identified separately.
Hypothetical close observations: initial and later data
Observation
Stage
Close
1
Initial
52
2
Initial
50
3
Initial
51
4
Initial
54
5
Initial
53
6
Initial
50.5
7
Initial
52
8
Initial
54
9
Later
54.6
10
Later
55.1
11
Later
53.8
12
Later
53.2
This fixed example illustrates a condition. A later outcome does not make the earlier information predictive.
Exercise 3 · Hypothetical example
Which record correctly preserves the proposed continuation test before revealing the next closes?
The hypothetical hourly closes are 100, 102, 101, 104, 103, 106 and 104. This exercise proposes a continuation event only if one of the next three completed closes is strictly above 106, provided no earlier close in that window is below 103. A close below 103 cancels this candidate; no trigger within three closes expires it. This is an illustrative observation rule, not an entry recommendation.
Hypothetical example. Hypothetical hourly closes. Apply the fixed three-close window and cancellation condition in chronological order.Read the 7 displayed observations as a table
Original hypothetical data. Price units follow the scenario. Observation numbers show sequence, not elapsed time. Only the initial observations are included.
Hypothetical close observations: initial data
Observation
Close
1
100
2
102
3
101
4
104
5
103
6
106
7
104
Worked explanation
The first revealed close, 102.5, is below 103, so the candidate is cancelled before any trigger. Later closes of 105 and 107 cannot rescue this original candidate, even though 107 is above 106 within the initial three-observation window. The fourth close, 108, is outside that window as well. Recording cancellation honestly matters more than selecting the later upward move as a success.
The later observations
Hypothetical example. Hypothetical hourly closes. Apply the fixed three-close window and cancellation condition in chronological order.Read the 11 displayed observations as a table
Original hypothetical data. Price units follow the scenario. Observation numbers show sequence, not elapsed time. Initial and later observations are identified separately.
Hypothetical close observations: initial and later data
Observation
Stage
Close
1
Initial
100
2
Initial
102
3
Initial
101
4
Initial
104
5
Initial
103
6
Initial
106
7
Initial
104
8
Later
102.5
9
Later
105
10
Later
107
11
Later
108
This fixed example illustrates a condition. A later outcome does not make the earlier information predictive.
Exercise 4 · Hypothetical example
Can the closing-price peak at 105 already be recorded as confirmed at the end of the visible sample?
The visible hypothetical hourly closes are 100, 101, 103, 102, 104, 103, 105 and 104. Define a local closing-price peak as a close strictly above the two preceding closes and the two following closes. This is a rule about closing values, not candle highs. A candidate becomes knowable only after both following closes exist.
Hypothetical example. Hypothetical hourly closes. The final visible 104 is only the first observation after the candidate close at 105.Read the 8 displayed observations as a table
Original hypothetical data. Price units follow the scenario. Observation numbers show sequence, not elapsed time. Only the initial observations are included.
Hypothetical close observations: initial data
Observation
Close
1
100
2
101
3
103
4
102
5
104
6
103
7
105
8
104
Worked explanation
After reveal, the first new close is 103. Together with the already visible 104, it supplies two following closes below 105. The local closing-price peak is therefore confirmed at this new 103 observation, not at the earlier 105 timestamp. A later close of 106 shows why a confirmed local peak is not a permanent ceiling. This timing rule supplies neither an earlier fill nor a profitable strategy.
The later observations
Hypothetical example. Hypothetical hourly closes. The final visible 104 is only the first observation after the candidate close at 105.Read the 12 displayed observations as a table
Original hypothetical data. Price units follow the scenario. Observation numbers show sequence, not elapsed time. Initial and later observations are identified separately.
Hypothetical close observations: initial and later data
Observation
Stage
Close
1
Initial
100
2
Initial
101
3
Initial
103
4
Initial
102
5
Initial
104
6
Initial
103
7
Initial
105
8
Initial
104
9
Later
103
10
Later
102
11
Later
104
12
Later
106
This fixed example illustrates a condition. A later outcome does not make the earlier information predictive.
Prepared by InsomniCapital, checked 2 October 2026. Original hypothetical exercises; source explanations and limitations are available in the companion guide. Risk disclosure.